Friday, February 12, 2010

Sorry Jane Taber, our Environics poll disputes EKOS poll and has Liberals in the lead


Our Environics poll taken Feb 4 – 9 that was based on 1,000 random telephone calls indicates 79.6% of Canadians support the implementation of the Marshall Savings Plan in Budget 2010...... and if an election were held today would vote:

Libs 28%

Cons 25%

NDP 10%

Green 7%

BQ 6%

Abstain 5%

Don’t know 17%

Accurate to within +/- 3.1%, 19 out of 20 times


Tories do well in poll - but with protest, not so much

Jane Taber
Globe and Mail
February 12, 2010

1. A shift in opinion. Prorogation outrage is petering out, according to a new EKOS poll that shows Stephen Harper’s Tories back on top.

The national survey found that for the first time in a month the Conservatives have a slim but significant two-point lead over Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals.

And will there be an election this year? EKOS pollster Mr. Graves discovered that about half of the electorate – 48.6 per cent – would choose a trip to the ballot box before the end of the year, compared to 42.5 per cent who don’t want one until the Prime Minister’s four-year term ends in the fall of 2012.

While EKOS pollster Frank Graves says these results won’t “have the Conservatives dancing in the streets” it does offer them some good news, finally.

The survey of 3,006 Canadians, conducted between Feb. 3 and 9, shows 31 per cent support for the Conservatives compared to 29 per cent for the Liberals. The NDP attracted 15.5 per cent of voter support; the Bloc has 10. 3 per and the Green Party has 11.3 per cent.

“It appears the profound and unexpected backlash from prorogation appears to have exhausted itself for the time being,” Mr. Graves says.

Indeed, the Liberals were tied with the Conservatives for several weeks as the Tories saw the 10-point lead over the Grits – one they had enjoyed in the fall – evaporate as a result of Mr. Harper’s decision to shut down Parliament.

“With a pretty solid performance over the past month [with the government’s rapid response to the Haiti earthquake] the CPC have clearly been able to right what was beginning to look like a sinking ship,” he said.

Given all that, however, Mr. Graves still says the new political landscape is one that sees the two major parties running almost neck-in-neck.

And he has found some underlying troubles for the Conservatives – only 9.3 per cent of respondents picked the Tories as their second choice compared to 16.6 per cent for the Liberals.

“This means that from their newly humble 31 point position that even in the unlikely case that they could collect 100 per cent of their current second choice vote, they would still fall short of a majority,” Mr. Graves says.


EKOS poll - February 11, 2010


However, he says the Liberals could “theoretically produce a large majority” if their first and second choice votes were combined. And he notes that theory could be put into practice if half of the respondents get their way on election timing.

Mr. Graves asked those surveyed: “If you could choose, when would you want the next federal election to be held?” And he found that 13.3 per cent want an election as soon as possible, 10.8 per cent want one sometime in the next four months while 24.2 per cent would like a vote before the end of the year.

“To put an exclamation point on that finding we note that, outside of CPC supporters, an overwhelming majority of the rest of the electorate want to see a 2010 election,” he says. “My guess is that they probably won’t be disappointed.”

2. An outburst on air. Oh, Dimitri. There he was on national television – his voice raised, his words pointed – arguing with an elected Member of Parliament, Vancouver New Democrat Libby Davies.

Dimitri Soudas, for those who don’t know him, is Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s spokesman. He is a young man who is extremely loyal to his boss and to his party. He is quick, smart and aggressive; he is often effective and he can also be really nice.

But he wasn’t yesterday.

He took on Ms. Davies, accusing her first in a press release of organizing a protest in which he said the doors of the building in which an event that was to be attended by the Prime Minister were chained shut. This, he said, prevented seniors, veterans and children from exiting a building.

Then he took it the airwaves after the CBC invited him onto their supper-hour politics show; he and Ms. Davies mixed it up on air.

The NDP MP denied organizing the protest. She said she was there supporting the community, which is angry about the Conservative government’s decision to take its bid to shut down Insite, Vancouver’s safe-injection site, all the way to the Supreme Court of Canada.

The protest forced the Prime Minister to postpone his visit to the Chinese Cultural Centre. Ms. Davies had tweeted that the protest was impressive. And that drew Mr. Soudas’ ire.

Now, this isn’t the first time that Mr. Soudas has found controversy.

For example, at the G8 summit in Italy last year, the Prime Minister had to apologize to Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff after Mr. Soudas gave him incorrect information. Mr. Soudas apologized to his boss and to Mr. Ignatieff at the time and said he would accept whatever consequences came to him.

Now he's back at it, hurling accusations at an MP yesterday and still asking today whether an elected politician should be encouraging protests of the sort that broke out here in Vancouver.

(Photo: Protesters surround the Chinese Cultural Centre in Vancouver yesterday ahead of the Prime Minister's visit. Chris Helgren/Reuters)

29 comments:

Dr Mike said...

Yessssssssss!!

Dr Mike

Scott Tribe said...

Have you a link to this poll? (the Environics one)

CAITI said...

Scott:

It will be posted on line tonight at the MarshallPlan.ca site, but in the meantime I can send you a copy,


Just email me at marshallplan@rogers.com

Brent Fullard

Éric said...

Will Environics itself be posting the results on their website?

I would like a copy as well.

Éric said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

Very encouraging to see the Green Party edging on the NDP ... Maybe we will finally get some real political choice in this country! The fed-Greens seem to be the only ones with any sense about the trust unit issue.

CAITI said...

Hey anonymous loser:

Nice try goofg ball, as its only a lead story on National Newswatch:

http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/index.php top right side, reads:

Environics Poll shows Liberals in national lead.

CAITI said...

Éric:

The polling results are now available on our website. Thanks for your interest, please see:

http://marshallplan.ca/index.html

Anonymous said...

Great, bring on the election. C'mon libs bring it on.

Hahahahahhaaaahha.

Dr Mike said...

OK!!!

Dr Mike

Anonymous said...

A thousand only polled and you want to convince anybody with a brain that this is statistically valid? Furthermore, what are the biased questions asked? You whiners are still out there crying? What did you do call all the people in your organization and their friends, relatives and their friends too? (real conservative)

Leonardo said...

ha ha ha like this is a legitimate poll?

Lets phone people who hate Harper because of income trusts.

Leonardo said...

The link over on Newswatch is busted.

This was one creative way to spam the internet . CAITI = SPAM.

Leonardo said...

Yeah The Liberals are leading in Quebec and the CPC is under 50 % in Alberta! So much for this spamola poll.

Leonardo said...

Check out their website.

I hate Harper because......

http://caiti-online-media.blogspot.com/search/label/Caiti%20Poll

Dr Mike said...

Hey Leonardo

Anonymity is a great thing--you can fire & shoot without a care in the world.

Obviously you have convictions which you cannot defend.

If you happen to grow a pair , come back for a real discussion.

Until you do , buzz-off.

Dr Mike Popovich
Rodney Ont

Ps : Leonardo , the hood with the eye-holes is a nice look

Paul M said...

Seems to be a lot of comments missing/deleted. Wonder why that is.

CAITI said...

Paul M:

What's your point? One comment deleted by the author.....

"This post has been removed by the author."

Leonardo said...

What a croc, now they have them at 38% !

Somebody has been smoking something funny.

We saw what was actually posted before and now they are posting something completely different They left out the real description with the "leading " questions that they asked when they made these so called "random" phone calls.

Leonardo said...

Liar read the environmics website. they only called 958 people.

You can't even get the basic facts straight so why should anybody believe your nonsense.

Paul M said...

No point per se. Just have learned to be weary of blogs that delete comments.

Blogging can be a great tool, but easily abused to perpetrate the illusion of enlightened discussion. By deleting comments you leave yourself open to criticism.

Leonardo said...

"If “Undecided” ask] Perhaps you have not yet made up your mind; is there nevertheless a party you might be inclined to support?"

Nothing like beating around the bush.

CAITI said...

Paul M:

It is you who have left yourself open to criticism, for insinuating something that wasn't true.

Brent Fullard

Paul M said...

Please explain.

Leonardo said...

What was the matter couldn't find 1000 people with a Toronto area code?

Leeky Sweek said...

Leonardo is right. Conservatives under 50% in Alberta? Forget it.

Paul M said...

Didn't notice that part. Good catch guys.

Cons under 50% in Alberta = Garbage poll.

Nice try CAITI!

CAITI said...

Paul M:

Your point was that something untoward was going on with all the deleted posts, when in fact there was only one deleted post and that one post was deleted by the AUTHOR,(Eric) who had a post immediately after his deleted post. No doubt he was merely correcting something that he wasn't pleased with.

Brent Fullard

CAITI said...

CONS under 50% in Alberta?

That sure seems to cause you guys some real concern?

Getting nervous boys? I would think between Harper and Stelmach you should be grateful to have any meaningful support in Alberta.